All signs point to one. In the 1920s, the conservative Republicans ruled the roost. There was a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage. Then the bubble burst with a worldwide depression that mired the country until WWII. The system didnít work and the more socialistic Dems got the nod. Their rule lasted for 16 years. We have gone back and forth over the past several years but I see a Liberal tide coming. Here are the signs:
1. Population of USA at 100,000 minorities and growing. Minority Americans are going to vote for their own self-interest. Why not? As long as they are on the bottom of the wealth continuum, redistribution of income and social programs are a way for them to make life easier for themselves. Politicians know this and cater to these needs. Letís tax the rich (meaning the middle class) will be the battle cry. The only tactic that infuriates me is the push to get convicted felons reinstated to vote. I donít object to their right to do so, only the manipulation of these people for political gain.
2. The unfortunate circumstances of the War on Terror. The current administrationís experiment in nation building has been a disaster. Quick strike strategies are much easier to understand and more effective. Al Qaeda must know something about this tactic that we donít. The current administration should have left Iraq a pile of rubble and smoke right after they declared victory. They thought they were emulating successes in Japan and Germany but were warned by experts that the situation was vastly different. (I will write another blog about testimony to the US Government by experts in the Japanese occupation.) Altruism in rebuilding a nation out of warring religious factions was naÔve to say the least. It will cost Republicans dearly for years to come.
3. We have become a more secular country. The Religious Right will have a hard time finding candidates who they can support. In some ways this is good. But I shudder to think about abortion on demand, same sex marriages, lewdness in the media and a total downgrading of the morality of our great nation. It is not what the founding fathers envisioned. However there is a wild card here; many of the Latin immigrants, legal or otherwise, are deeply religious Ė mostly Roman Catholic. They could have a dampening effect on this trend. A good number of Latinos vote Republican in Florida. They were especially fond of Jeb Bush, who spoke fluent Spanish. The same is true for many Southern blacks who profess strong religious values. However, I donít see their numbers growing. I do not mean to say that Democrats are not religious. I was brought up in a strictly Democrat family and moral values were absolute. It is only a visceral observation and conclusion from the last Presidential election where the Religious Right tipped the election.
4. Demographics are changing. The members of Greatest Generation, who tended to be more conservative, are meeting their Maker on a regular basis. It will become a younger nation with a more iconoclastic character. God, I hope they know what they are doing.
This is not an ironclad prediction and the flow of history may change things. Who knows? But thatís what it looks like right now based on the observations of an old guy who has seen a lot of politics come and go.